The Tour Heads For Ultimate Showdown
By Chris Carmichael


When I think about highly-anticipated time trials in the Tour de France, two immediately come to mind and both involved American riders. On the eve of the final time trial in 1989, Greg LeMond sat 50 seconds behind the leader, Frenchman Laurent Fignon. And in 2003, Lance Armstrong was only 1:05 in front of Jan Ullrich going into the final time trial, having lost 1:36 to the German in the same event during Stage 12. In both cases, the American riders prevailed and won the Tour de France. This year, it's a young Spanish rider, Alberto Contador, who's in the hot seat, with a lead of 1:50 over Cadel Evans and 2:49 over his Discovery Channel teammate Levi Leipheimer.

The current situation in the Tour is very similar to 2003. The top three riders are separated by less than three minutes, and heading into a 55-kilometer time trial, that's too close for comfort. In 2003, Ullrich was 1:05 behind in second place, and Alexander Vinokourov was 2:47 down in third behind Armstrong. That was the year the time trial was contested in the rain, Ullrich crashed and Armstrong rode conservatively over the final few kilometers to stay upright. In the end, everyone in the top three overall retained their positions. But the big difference between then and now is the fact that Contador isn't a dominant rider against the clock and the two men behind him in the overall classification have big time trial wins on their race resumes.

In the Stage 13 time trial earlier in this Tour de France, Contador lost 1:04 to Evans, and a similar performance tomorrow would get him to Paris in yellow. However, tomorrow's course is flatter than Stage 13, and that plays to Evans' advantage. The real unknown, however, is how these two men are feeling after racing through the Pyrenees. Both riders were clearly fatigued on the slopes of the Col d'Aubisque at the end of Stage 16, and the results of tomorrow's time trial -- indeed the results of the entire Tour de France -- may come down to which man has recovered the best over yesterday and today's stages.

Contador has two things working in his favor. He's wearing the yellow jersey, and though it's become a cliche to say it, that jersey really does give a rider the ability to dig deeper and pull out an amazing performance. His second advantage is being the last man to leave the start house. Out on the road, he'll get time splits on Evans and he'll be able to use that information to adjust his effort.

Leipheimer has a chance to move up from his current position in third place overall, but he�d have to have the ride of his life to grab the yellow jersey. He's fortunate, however, that tomorrow is a time trial, because it's really the only kind of race that gives him the opportunity to move up. If there were only road stages left in the race, he wouldn't be able to attack because doing so would jeopardize his teammate's chances of winning the Tour de France. But in an individual time trial he can race flat out without facing criticism for racing "against" his own teammate.

I don't think Contador will beat Evans in tomorrow's time trial, but I do think he has the power to keep the yellow jersey and win the Tour de France. It's going to be close, though, and we may very well see a winning margin close to LeMond's 8-second victory in 1989. Remember, though, that in 1989 the final time trial was also the final stage in Paris. If either Contador or Evans comes away from tomorrow's time trial with a lead of just a handful of seconds, we could actually see the Tour de France decided by intermediate sprints on the final road stage into Paris.

Stage 19 of the 2007 Tour de France is the most highly-anticipated time trial the race has seen in years, and by tomorrow evening I think the top three men will be separated by less than two minutes. And it's hard to choose one rider to root for, too. In 2003, I was obviously pulling for Lance. This year, though, it would be great to see a 24-year-old win the yellow jersey and the white Young Rider jersey, or to see Evans come from behind to become the first Australian to win the race, or to see Leipheimer put in the ride of his life to grab the biggest prize in cycling. I guess all we can do now is wait and see what happens.

Just in case anyone does not recall the last stage of 1989 ... it was a year when the race finished with a relatively short time trial. Greg Lemond unveiled the first generation of scott aerobars and an aero helmet, while the leader on GC by 50 seconds (Laurent Fignon) had a cycling cap and a ponytail flapping in the breeze. Post-race aerodynamic analysis *found* that if Fignon had just tucked his ponytail into the back of his jersey, he would have had enough of an aerodynamic advantage to stay in yellow for his third tour victory!

Chris

Ouch! Thank god for ponytails.